Vol. 11, No 3: 71–78.

Medical Sciences

 2026

Scientific article

UDK 618.5-07
pdf-version

Ulyana E. Taeva
specialist degree, Petrozavodsk State University
(Petrozavodsk, Russia),
taevaulyana@gmail.com

Cardiotocography in Asphyxia Prediction: Its Prognostic Value and the Role of Clinical Context

Scientific adviser:
Alexander A. Ivshin
Reviewer:
Julia Boldina
Paper submitted on: 09/28/2026;
Accepted on: 09/28/2026;
Published online on: 09/28/2026.
 Abstract. The subjectivity of visual cardiotocography (CTG) interpretation limits the reliability of intrapartum foetal monitoring. The study aimed to assess the predictive value of CTG interpretation according to the FIGO classification and the role of meconium-stained amniotic fluid in predicting neonatal asphyxia. This was a retrospective cohort study (n=9,981) that applied ROC analysis and convergent validation. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.595, with the treatment paradox and base rate effect depressing the observed association. The findings justify automated CTG interpretation as a clinical decision support tool.
Keywords: cardiotocography, FIGO classification, neonatal asphyxia, predictive value, convergent validation, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, treatment paradox, base rate effect, machine learning, clinical decision support system

For citation: Taeva, U. E. Cardiotocography in Asphyxia Prediction: Its Prognostic Value and the Role of Clinical Context. StudArctic forum. 2026, 11 (3): 71–78.

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